“What Use is a Business Major?”

I’ve taken a lot of flack in the reactions to the blog for being a useless business major. So, allow me to show you one of my OTHER nerdy hobbies! It’s called regression analysis.

For those of you who haven’t taken higher-level math, regression analysis is essentially using existing data to develop a model that can predict future behavior. Such models are used extensively in everything from stock trading to horse racing. The most simple type is a linear regression, which is used on websites like Kicktraq.com. It’s great if you have a steady progression of pledges; however, it’s often true that the number of pledges starts out high and then trickles off.

I’ve found what I consider to be a best-fit exponential regression curve for the data present, and then used a median pledge value to calculate a projected ending value for the Pathfinder Online Tech Demo Kickstarter. Keep in mind that this is a projection only, and that any change in behavior (such as people pledging greater values) will change the results.

My analysis results in a total figure of $120,463.20 at the end of the thirty days. (For those of you who know what this means, the coefficient of determination is 0.89.) I’m throwing my “bet” up here; I may revise it as we get more data, but I sincerely doubt that the result will be altered without a significant change in pledging behavior.

Also, I want to throw a link out to UnSubject, who has written a fantastic critique of the Pathfinder Kickstarter. Allow me to quote my favorite bits:

Perhaps I’m missing something there, but it appears that the Tech Demo isn’t offering anything more interesting than was available in BioWare’s 2002 title Neverwinter Nights. Maybe the “basic game mechanics” will be a bit different, but that term is so vague as to be meaningless. It’s unlikely that a $50k budget is going to show off any real sandbox potential, despite ‘sandbox’ being a key feature that PathO is trying to stand out on. Even linear theme park MMOs look sandbox-ish if there are only 5 people in-game.

If Goblinworks couldn’t find $50k to develop their own Tech Demo, then forget about PathO – the title should be considered the walking dead already. After developing the Tech Demo comes the period of time shopping it around to potential investors and publishers. The team pulled in to work on the Tech Demo will either need to be let go or continue being on payroll during this period and both options effects PathO’s resources moving forward. Publishers / investors will want time to consider their options. Time will burn money. So, again, if Goblinworks couldn’t afford $50k now for a pre-pre-pre-alpha build, PathO is already on the edge of a cliff.

Lions of the North!

I talked about funding at length in another article, and it’s worth mentioning that Kickstarter has become a haven for funding games. One particularly promising, original game is Lions of the North, a post-post-apocalyptic game with a fantastic take on humanity might turn out.

Lions of the North is a roleplaying game that takes place in the future after the destruction of our current civilization. New nations and states have appeared in Northern Europe, struggling for their place in the sun. The new nations have abandoned the dead past and have embraced equality in a way our society hasn’t. Racism and sexism are things of the past.

The nobles of Peimar, the traders of Kirkoslet and the despots of Hanö are all seeking fortune and power. The pirates of Bornholm seek to gain wealth by raiding merchant vessels and the Gotlanders try to keep control of their island when the great powers of the age start encroaching on their territory. It’s The Age of Lions, and it means means that anyone is free to carve out their own destiny on land or at sea. It’s an age of free women and men, an age where your birth and gender don’t mean anything, having a strong swordarm or a cunning mind means a lot more.

Beyond this struggle, mythical creatures and strange magic appears on the new frontier. What are the dark forests hiding and are you brave enough to find out?

I really like the idea, and Kemper’s blog puts out some more fantastic details about his setting and system. Please support this awesome project by pledging!